By 2100, the world’s energy consumption will lead to warming of the Earth with 6 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial, said Fatih Briol, chief economist of the International Energy Agency, the UN conference on climate change that takes place these days in Durban, South Africa.
In international negotiations on climate, it is established that will allow global temperatures to increase by more than 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial level. However, so far, temperatures have risen by 0.8 degrees Celsius.
According to the latest analysis by the International Energy Agency, at this rate, emissions from energy infrastructure will not lead to an increase of 2 degrees, as originally thought, but by 6 degrees Celsius by 2100.
Calculations show that if we continue to use non-renewable energy sources for electricity and transport, in less than 100 years temperatures will rise by 6 degrees Celsius – a phenomenon which Birol said that “is a catastrophe for us all. ”
Burwall David, who runs a program at the Carnegie Endowment, on the impact of energy on climate, says that production of this phenomenon will depend largely by private sector investors for the oil industry.
In an interview at the UN conference, Birol said that the information published by the Agency will take effect in China, a country where, by 2015, carbon emissions per capita will exceed the European Union. Moreover, by 2035, China will become the largest producer of carbon emissions in history.
This is the first time that officials from the International Energy Agency decided to treat this subject in a public manner so direct, so that should make us realize the importance of the phenomenon, experts say.
Reviewing a few of the events of this year’s climate, we realize that the global situation is deteriorating rapidly.
Only in the course of 2011, in East Africa, in areas where there are irrigation systems, countries such as Kenya, Somalia and Ethiopia were severely affected by drought in the agricultural season, for then, in October, the territories to be flooded . More than 13 million people needed help to survive famine.
In East Asia, monsoon season has proved devastating for Laos and Thailand, floods curmând over 1,000 lives. Bangkok was also affected by severe floods, tidal favored, which led to huge economic losses.
North America has suffered losses of billions of dollars from the 14 major climate events that occurred earlier this year. While the south has been affected by drought, especially in Texas, where average temperatures have increased by 3 degrees Celsius in some states in northern and central regions were recorded massive falls of precipitation and flooding.
South America and Central America were also affected. In Brazil there has been one of the biggest natural disasters in the history of the state. Within hours, rainfall reached 200 mm, causing nearly 900 deaths.
In the central region Huizucar, in El Salvador was hit by a quantity of 1 513 mm of precipitation in less than 10 days. Guatemala, Costa Rica, Nicaragua and Honduras have also suffered from the weather.
The United Nations in 2011 ranked 10th place among the warmest years returned.
Also, the World Meteorological Organization said that concentrations of three greenhouse gases resulting from human activities – carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide – are increasing.
Although officials said that the average annual temperature in 2011 was lower than in 2010, experts say that people had to do with this. Cooling has occurred due to La Nina climatic phenomenon characterized by low temperatures of Pacific Ocean surface water.